5 matches are on Tuesday's card at Genova, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Felipe Meligeni Alves against Hugo Dellien in the round of 32. Our calls: Dellien over Alves, Napolitano over Travaglia, Sonego over Passaro, Dodig over Agamenone, Varillas over Arnaboldi.
The boldest call on the card: Napolitano over Travaglia — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Varillas
Win probability: 66% Varillas · Market: -244 · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (38%)
Tuesday's Genova round of 32 pits Federico Arnaboldi against Juan Pablo Varillas on clay. Juan Pablo Varillas comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Federico Arnaboldi has dropped 7 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.
Juan Pablo Varillas is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Varillas around 66%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Varillas.
Pick: Dellien
Win probability: 58% Dellien · Market: -189 · Sets: 3 (45%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Tuesday's Genova round of 32 pits Felipe Meligeni Alves against Hugo Dellien on clay. Hugo Dellien is 8-2 across recent matches. Felipe Meligeni Alves is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Hugo Dellien is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Dellien around 58%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Dellien is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Sonego
Win probability: 56% Sonego · Market: -145 · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (35%)
Tuesday's Genova round of 32 pits Francesco Passaro against Lorenzo Sonego on clay. Lorenzo Sonego comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Francesco Passaro is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Sonego is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Dodig
Win probability: 66% Dodig · Market: -266 · Sets: 3 (47%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Franco Agamenone goes up against Matej Dodig in the Genova round of 32. Matej Dodig is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Franco Agamenone is 3-7 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.9% versus 63.3% on first-serve points in Dodig's favor. Dodig should have enough here, though Agamenone has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: NapolitanoUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Travaglia the favorite; our numbers say Napolitano.
Win probability: 53% Napolitano · Market: +130 · Sets: 3 (47%) · most likely score 2-0 (28%)
Stefano Napolitano and Stefano Travaglia meet in the round of 32 at Genova on Tuesday. Stefano Napolitano has dropped 2 straight and sits at 7-3 over the last ten. Stefano Travaglia limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Little separates them; Napolitano gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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