2 matches are on Tuesday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex Michelsen against Frances Tiafoe in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Tiafoe over Michelsen, Zverev over Darderi.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 78% Zverev · Market: -730 · Sets: 4+ (52%) · most likely score 3-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Alexander Zverev goes up against Luciano Darderi in the US Open round of 16. Alexander Zverev is 7-3 across recent matches. Luciano Darderi has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.
The serve is where this match separates: Zverev has been winning 73.7% of first-serve points to Darderi's 69.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Darderi needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Tiafoe
Win probability: 52% Tiafoe · Market: -139 · Sets: 4+ (63%) · most likely score 3-0 (20%)
Alex Michelsen and Frances Tiafoe meet in the quarterfinal at US Open on Tuesday. Frances Tiafoe is rolling — 4 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play. Alex Michelsen is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tiafoe is exactly that — a lean.
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