3 matches are on Thursday's card at Genova, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Hugo Dellien against Matej Dodig in the round of 16. Our calls: Dellien over Dodig, Varillas over Passaro, Travaglia over Valle.
The boldest call on the card: Varillas over Passaro — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Dellien
Win probability: 52% Dellien · Market: -135 · Sets: 3 (51%) · most likely score 2-1 (27%)
Thursday's Genova round of 16 pits Hugo Dellien against Matej Dodig on clay. Hugo Dellien has won 8 of the last 10. Matej Dodig brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
There is no history here: this is their first tour-level meeting.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Dellien arrives with very little recovery time. Little separates them; Dellien gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Travaglia
Win probability: 57% Travaglia · Market: +118 · Sets: 3 (48%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Thursday's Genova round of 16 pits Enrico Dalla Valle against Stefano Travaglia on clay. Stefano Travaglia comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Enrico Dalla Valle comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Travaglia's 69.6% behind the first serve (against 65.1% for Valle) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Travaglia gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: VarillasUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Passaro; our numbers say Varillas.
Win probability: 54% Varillas · Market: +176 · Sets: 3 (47%) · most likely score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Francesco Passaro goes up against Juan Pablo Varillas in the Genova round of 16. Juan Pablo Varillas has won 7 of the last 10. Francesco Passaro is 4-6 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Varillas gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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