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US Open predictions, September 10, 2026: Sabalenka vs. Pegula

By The Maiden Desk · September 10, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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One match is on Thursday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Aryna Sabalenka against Jessica Pegula in the semifinal. Our calls: Sabalenka over Pegula.

September 9, 2026 results: 16-9 how our picks graded, match by match.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 62% on Aryna Sabalenka, who won 7-5 6-2.

Pick: Sabalenka

Win probability: 62% Sabalenka · Market: -171 · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Aryna Sabalenka goes up against Jessica Pegula in the US Open semifinal. Aryna Sabalenka is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Jessica Pegula brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten.

Sabalenka's 67% behind the first serve (against 63.9% for Pegula) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Sabalenka should have enough here, though Pegula has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

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Updated Sep 9, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.

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