2 matches are on Thursday's card at Shanghai, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Bernard Tomic against Ilya Ivashka in the round of 16. Our calls: Tomic over Ivashka, Zhou over Cui.
The boldest call on the card: Tomic over Ivashka — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: TomicUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Ivashka the favorite; our numbers say Tomic.
Win probability: 55% Tomic · Market: +125 · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (32%)
Bernard Tomic and Ilya Ivashka meet in the round of 16 at Shanghai on Thursday. Bernard Tomic is 8-2 across recent matches. Ilya Ivashka is 6-4 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Tomic comes in off a compressed schedule; Ivashka arrives with very little recovery time. Little separates them; Tomic gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Zhou
Win probability: 52% Zhou · Market: -193 · Sets: 3 (54%) · most likely score 2-1 (28%)
Jie Cui and Yi Zhou meet in the round of 16 at Shanghai on Thursday. Yi Zhou has won 5 of the last 10. Jie Cui is 6-4 across recent matches.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Cui comes in off a compressed schedule; Zhou arrives with very little recovery time. Little separates them; Zhou gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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