2 matches are on Friday's card at US Open, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Ben Shelton against Frances Tiafoe in the semifinal. Our calls: Shelton over Tiafoe, Zverev over Khachanov.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 75% Zverev · Market: -393 · Sets: 4+ (52%) · most likely score 3-0 (42%)
Friday's US Open semifinal pits Alexander Zverev against Karen Khachanov on hard. Alexander Zverev brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Karen Khachanov brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 6-4 across the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. If Zverev plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Shelton
Win probability: 60% Shelton · Market: -255 · Sets: 4+ (67%) · most likely score 3-0 (24%)
Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe meet in the semifinal at US Open on Friday. Ben Shelton has won 5 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Frances Tiafoe is rolling — 5 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.
Ben Shelton is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Shelton around 60%. Shelton should have enough here, though Tiafoe has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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