6 matches are on Monday's card at Guadalajara, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Tatjana Maria against Taylor Townsend in the round of 32. Our calls: Townsend over Maria, Zarazua over Dolehide, Frech over Hibino, Sonmez over Shymanovich, Day over Kalieva, Stephens over Monnet.
Pick: Townsend
Win probability: 67% Townsend · Market: -233 · Sets: 2 (65%) · most likely score 2-0 (45%)
Tatjana Maria and Taylor Townsend meet in the round of 32 at Guadalajara on Monday. Taylor Townsend is 6-4 across recent matches. Tatjana Maria has won 7 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Townsend.
Pick: Day
Win probability: 51% Day · Market: -156 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Elvina Kalieva goes up against Kayla Day in the Guadalajara round of 32. Kayla Day has won 3 of the last 10. Elvina Kalieva limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Kayla Day simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Day fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Stephens
Win probability: 65% Stephens · Market: -314 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)
Carole Monnet and Sloane Stephens meet in the round of 32 at Guadalajara on Monday. Sloane Stephens is 4-6 across recent matches. Carole Monnet is 4-6 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 60.8% versus 57.5% on first-serve points in Stephens's favor. The edge belongs to Stephens — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Frech
Win probability: 64% Frech · Market: -350 · Sets: 2 (67%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)
Monday's Guadalajara round of 32 pits Magdalena Frech against Nao Hibino on hard. Magdalena Frech is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Nao Hibino comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Frech — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Sonmez
Win probability: 62% Sonmez · Market: -216 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (39%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Iryna Shymanovich goes up against Zeynep Sonmez in the Guadalajara round of 32. Zeynep Sonmez has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Iryna Shymanovich has won 3 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Sonmez — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Zarazua
Win probability: 52% Zarazua · Market: +121 · Sets: 2 (59%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
Monday's Guadalajara round of 32 pits Caroline Dolehide against Renata Zarazua on hard. Renata Zarazua limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 1 wins in 10. Caroline Dolehide has dropped 4 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Zarazua is exactly that — a lean.
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