3 matches are on Tuesday's card at Guangzhou 2, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Pavel Kotov against Shintaro Mochizuki in the round of 32. Our calls: Kotov over Mochizuki, Harris over Matsuoka, Galarneau over Sun.
Pick: Harris
Win probability: 65% Harris · Market: -352 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (42%)
Hayato Matsuoka and Lloyd Harris meet in the round of 32 at Guangzhou 2 on Tuesday. Lloyd Harris has won 5 of the last 10. Hayato Matsuoka has dropped 2 straight and sits at 7-3 over the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Harris has been winning 74.1% of first-serve points to Matsuoka's 69.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Harris should have enough here, though Matsuoka has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Kotov
Win probability: 60% Kotov · Market: +109 · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
Tuesday's Guangzhou 2 round of 32 pits Pavel Kotov against Shintaro Mochizuki on hard. Pavel Kotov is 5-5 across recent matches. Shintaro Mochizuki limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
Pavel Kotov simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kotov fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Galarneau
Win probability: 60% Galarneau · Market: -219 · Sets: 3 (49%) · most likely score 2-0 (31%)
Tuesday's Guangzhou 2 round of 32 pits Alexis Galarneau against Fajing Sun on hard. Alexis Galarneau is 6-4 across recent matches. Fajing Sun is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Galarneau — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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