4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Guangzhou 2, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Lloyd Harris against Marat Sharipov in the round of 16. Our calls: Harris over Sharipov, Kotov over Santillan, Cina over Trotter, Fomin over Wei.
Pick: Cina
Win probability: 60% Cina · Market: -249 · Sets: 3 (53%) · most likely score 2-1 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Federico Cina goes up against James Trotter in the Guangzhou 2 round of 32. Federico Cina has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. James Trotter comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Cina fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Fomin
Win probability: 57% Fomin · Sets: 2 (61%) · most likely score 2-0 (36%)
Wednesday's Guangzhou 2 round of 32 pits Kang Leong Mitsuki Wei against Sergey Fomin on hard. Sergey Fomin is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10). Kang Leong Mitsuki Wei limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Sergey Fomin is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Fomin around 57%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Fomin is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Kotov
Win probability: 73% Kotov · Market: -302 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (47%)
Wednesday's Guangzhou 2 round of 16 pits Akira Santillan against Pavel Kotov on hard. Pavel Kotov is 5-5 across recent matches. Akira Santillan comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Kotov comes in off a compressed schedule. Santillan needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Harris
Win probability: 59% Harris · Market: -206 · Sets: 3 (44%) · most likely score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Lloyd Harris goes up against Marat Sharipov in the Guangzhou 2 round of 16. Lloyd Harris has won 6 of the last 10. Marat Sharipov is 6-4 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Harris comes in off a compressed schedule; Sharipov comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Harris fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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