4 matches are on Thursday's card at Guadalajara, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Cristina Bucsa against Sara Bejlek in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Bejlek over Bucsa, Kostyuk over Samsonova, Jovic over Frech, Samsonova over Day.
Pick: Bejlek
Win probability: 63% Bejlek · Market: -169 · Sets: 2 (63%) · most likely score 2-0 (41%)
Thursday's Guadalajara quarterfinal pits Cristina Bucsa against Sara Bejlek on hard. Sara Bejlek has won 7 of the last 10. Cristina Bucsa is 6-4 across recent matches.
Sara Bejlek is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Bejlek around 63%. The edge belongs to Bejlek — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Samsonova
Win probability: 72% Samsonova · Market: -223 · Sets: 2 (68%) · most likely score 2-0 (51%)
Thursday's Guadalajara round of 16 pits Kayla Day against Liudmila Samsonova on hard. Liudmila Samsonova is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Kayla Day is 3-7 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.2% versus 63.3% on first-serve points in Samsonova's favor. Anything other than a Samsonova win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Jovic
Win probability: 65% Jovic · Market: -262 · Sets: 2 (64%) · most likely score 2-0 (44%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Iva Jovic goes up against Magdalena Frech in the Guadalajara quarterfinal. Iva Jovic comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Magdalena Frech comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Jovic should have enough here, though Frech has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Kostyuk
Win probability: 72% Kostyuk · Market: -335 · Sets: 2 (66%) · most likely score 2-0 (50%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Liudmila Samsonova goes up against Marta Kostyuk in the Guadalajara quarterfinal. Marta Kostyuk is 7-3 across recent matches. Liudmila Samsonova is 6-4 across recent matches.
Marta Kostyuk is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Kostyuk around 72%. The edge belongs to Kostyuk — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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