8 matches are on Thursday's card at Guadalajara and Sao Paulo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Iva Jovic against Magdalena Frech in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Jovic over Frech, Kostyuk over Samsonova, Avanesyan over Charaeva, Bejlek over Bucsa, Lys over Podoroska, Samsonova over Day, and 2 more.
September 16, 2026 results: 11-8 → how our picks graded, match by match.
Pick: Jovic
Win probability: 65% Jovic · Market: -262 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Iva Jovic goes up against Magdalena Frech in the Guadalajara quarterfinal. Iva Jovic comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Magdalena Frech comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Jovic should have enough here, though Frech has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Kostyuk
Win probability: 72% Kostyuk · Market: -335 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (50%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Liudmila Samsonova goes up against Marta Kostyuk in the Guadalajara quarterfinal. Marta Kostyuk is 7-3 across recent matches. Liudmila Samsonova is 6-4 across recent matches.
Marta Kostyuk is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Kostyuk around 72%. The edge belongs to Kostyuk — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Avanesyan
Win probability: 54% Avanesyan · Market: -110 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alina Charaeva goes up against Elina Avanesyan in the Sao Paulo round of 16. Elina Avanesyan is 6-4 across recent matches. Alina Charaeva has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Avanesyan is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Bejlek
Win probability: 63% Bejlek · Market: -169 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Thursday's Guadalajara quarterfinal pits Cristina Bucsa against Sara Bejlek on hard. Sara Bejlek has won 7 of the last 10. Cristina Bucsa is 6-4 across recent matches.
Sara Bejlek is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Bejlek around 63%. The edge belongs to Bejlek — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Lys
Win probability: 62% Lys · Market: -163 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Eva Lys and Nadia Podoroska meet in the round of 16 at Sao Paulo on Thursday. Eva Lys has won 4 of the last 10. Nadia Podoroska has won 4 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. The edge belongs to Lys — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Samsonova
Win probability: 72% Samsonova · Market: -223 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (51%)
Thursday's Guadalajara round of 16 pits Kayla Day against Liudmila Samsonova on hard. Liudmila Samsonova is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Kayla Day is 3-7 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.2% versus 63.3% on first-serve points in Samsonova's favor. Anything other than a Samsonova win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Badosa
Win probability: 73% Badosa · Market: -668 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (51%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Jazmin Ortenzi goes up against Paula Badosa in the Sao Paulo round of 16. Paula Badosa comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Jazmin Ortenzi is 5-5 across recent matches.
The serve is where this match separates: Badosa has been winning 65% of first-serve points to Ortenzi's 58.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. If Badosa plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Sierra
Win probability: 64% Sierra · Market: -123 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Solana Sierra goes up against Suzan Lamens in the Sao Paulo round of 16. Solana Sierra limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Suzan Lamens limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. The edge belongs to Sierra — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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