3 matches are on Friday's card at Sao Paulo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alina Charaeva against Anna Blinkova in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Blinkova over Charaeva, Kostovic over Quevedo, Podoroska over Lamens.
Pick: Kostovic
Win probability: 52% Kostovic · Market: +129 · Sets: 3 (43%) · most likely score 2-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Kaitlin Quevedo goes up against Teodora Kostovic in the Sao Paulo quarterfinal. Teodora Kostovic has won 4 of the last 10. Kaitlin Quevedo comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Kostovic's 63.8% behind the first serve (against 60.7% for Quevedo) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Quevedo comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kostovic is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Blinkova
Win probability: 55% Blinkova · Market: -143 · Sets: 2 (58%) · most likely score 2-0 (33%)
Alina Charaeva and Anna Blinkova meet in the quarterfinal at Sao Paulo on Friday. Anna Blinkova has won 6 of the last 10. Alina Charaeva is 5-5 across recent matches.
Anna Blinkova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Blinkova around 55%. Little separates them; Blinkova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Podoroska
Win probability: 59% Podoroska · Market: -108 · Sets: 2 (62%) · most likely score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Nadia Podoroska goes up against Suzan Lamens in the Sao Paulo quarterfinal. Nadia Podoroska has won 4 of the last 10. Suzan Lamens is 5-5 across recent matches.
Nadia Podoroska is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Podoroska around 59%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Podoroska fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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