2 matches are on Saturday's card at Guangzhou 2, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Bernard Tomic against Pavel Kotov in the semifinal. Our calls: Kotov over Tomic, Sharipov over Biryukov.
Pick: Sharipov
Win probability: 74% Sharipov · Market: -329 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
Saturday's Guangzhou 2 semifinal pits Marat Sharipov against Petr Bar Biryukov on hard. Marat Sharipov comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Petr Bar Biryukov is 3-7 across recent matches.
Marat Sharipov simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Sharipov comes in off a compressed schedule; Biryukov comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Sharipov win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Kotov
Win probability: 61% Kotov · Market: -122 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Bernard Tomic and Pavel Kotov meet in the semifinal at Guangzhou 2 on Saturday. Pavel Kotov is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Bernard Tomic has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
Pavel Kotov simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Tomic comes in off a compressed schedule; Kotov comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Kotov — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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