2 matches are on Saturday's card at Sao Paulo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Anna Blinkova against Kaitlin Quevedo in the semifinal. Our calls: Blinkova over Quevedo, Badosa over Podoroska.
Pick: Blinkova
Win probability: 54% Blinkova · Market: -144 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Anna Blinkova and Kaitlin Quevedo meet in the semifinal at Sao Paulo on Saturday. Anna Blinkova is 6-4 across recent matches. Kaitlin Quevedo is 5-5 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Blinkova comes in off a compressed schedule; Quevedo comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Blinkova is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Badosa
Win probability: 73% Badosa · Market: -394 · We call it in 2 sets (68%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (51%)
Saturday's Sao Paulo semifinal pits Nadia Podoroska against Paula Badosa on hard. Paula Badosa has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Nadia Podoroska has won 4 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Badosa win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
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