2 matches are on Monday's card at St. Tropez, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: David Goffin against Mark Lajal in the round of 32. Our calls: Lajal over Goffin, Guerrieri over Maestrelli.
Pick: Guerrieri
Win probability: 53% Guerrieri · Market: -111 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
Monday's St. Tropez round of 32 pits Andrea Guerrieri against Francesco Maestrelli on hard. Andrea Guerrieri limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Francesco Maestrelli comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Guerrieri gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Lajal
Win probability: 62% Lajal · Market: -320 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when David Goffin goes up against Mark Lajal in the St. Tropez round of 32. Mark Lajal has won 7 of the last 10. David Goffin limps in on a 6-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Mark Lajal simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Lajal — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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