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St. Tropez Predictions & Picks — September 22, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · September 22, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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9 matches are on Tuesday's card at St. Tropez, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Edas Butvilas against Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 32. Our calls: Dimitrov over Butvilas, Kjaer over Harris, Jong over Bertola, Prizmic over Rincon, Schoolkate over Martineau, Blanchet over Mejia, and 3 more.

Jesper De Jong vs Remy Bertola

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Jesper De Jong at 59% before the match, and Jesper De Jong won 7-6 7-6.

Pick: Jong

Win probability: 59% Jong · Market: -238 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)

Jesper De Jong and Remy Bertola meet in the round of 32 at St. Tropez on Tuesday. Jesper De Jong comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Remy Bertola is 5-5 across recent matches.

Jong's 72.6% behind the first serve (against 69.5% for Bertola) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Jong gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Borna Gojo vs Vadym Ursu

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Borna Gojo at 81% before the match, and Borna Gojo won 7-5 6-3.

Pick: Gojo

Win probability: 81% Gojo · Market: -536 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (55%)

Tuesday's St. Tropez round of 32 pits Borna Gojo against Vadym Ursu on hard. Borna Gojo has won 7 of the last 10. Vadym Ursu comes in at 2 wins from the last ten.

Gojo's 75.3% behind the first serve (against 63.5% for Ursu) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Gojo plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.

David Jorda Sanchis vs Harry Wendelken

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 62% on Harry Wendelken; David Jorda Sanchis won 6-2 6-4.

Pick: Wendelken

Win probability: 62% Wendelken · Market: -266 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)

David Jorda Sanchis and Harry Wendelken meet in the round of 32 at St. Tropez on Tuesday. Harry Wendelken has won 2 of the last 10. David Jorda Sanchis has dropped 5 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

Harry Wendelken simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Wendelken — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Nicolas Mejia vs Ugo Blanchet

Not gradedThis match ended in a retirement, advancing Ugo Blanchet. It is excluded from our graded record — no pick is counted as right or wrong.

Pick: Blanchet

Win probability: 56% Blanchet · Market: -130 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (29%)

Nicolas Mejia and Ugo Blanchet meet in the round of 32 at St. Tropez on Tuesday. Ugo Blanchet is 3-7 across recent matches. Nicolas Mejia has dropped 4 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.

Blanchet's 72.2% behind the first serve (against 69.1% for Mejia) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Blanchet fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Daniel Rincon vs Dino Prizmic

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 66% on Dino Prizmic, who won 6-4 6-3.

Pick: Prizmic

Win probability: 66% Prizmic · Market: -354 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Daniel Rincon goes up against Dino Prizmic in the St. Tropez round of 32. Dino Prizmic has won 5 of the last 10. Daniel Rincon is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10).

Dino Prizmic is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Prizmic around 66%. Prizmic should have enough here, though Rincon has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Hugo Grenier vs Thomas Faurel

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Hugo Grenier at 61% lost to Thomas Faurel (6-4 6-4).

Pick: Grenier

Win probability: 61% Grenier · Market: -145 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)

Tuesday's St. Tropez round of 32 pits Hugo Grenier against Thomas Faurel on hard. Hugo Grenier limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10. Thomas Faurel is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (2 of the last 10).

The serve is where this match separates: Grenier has been winning 71.2% of first-serve points to Faurel's 63%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Grenier — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Matteo Martineau vs Tristan Schoolkate

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 60% on Tristan Schoolkate; Matteo Martineau won 7-6 6-7 7-6.

Pick: Schoolkate

Win probability: 60% Schoolkate · Market: -197 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (30%)

Tuesday's St. Tropez round of 32 pits Matteo Martineau against Tristan Schoolkate on hard. Tristan Schoolkate has won 5 of the last 10. Matteo Martineau comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Schoolkate should have enough here, though Martineau has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Edas Butvilas vs Grigor Dimitrov

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Grigor Dimitrov at 62% lost to Edas Butvilas (7-6 6-3).

Pick: Dimitrov

Win probability: 62% Dimitrov · Market: -204 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Edas Butvilas goes up against Grigor Dimitrov in the St. Tropez round of 32. Grigor Dimitrov comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Edas Butvilas limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 7 wins in 10.

Dimitrov's 73.8% behind the first serve (against 69.4% for Butvilas) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. The edge belongs to Dimitrov — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Billy Harris vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Nicolai Budkov Kjaer at 56%, but Billy Harris won 3-6 6-3 7-5.

Pick: Kjaer

Win probability: 56% Kjaer · Market: -157 · We call it in 3 sets (52%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (29%)

Billy Harris and Nicolai Budkov Kjaer meet in the round of 32 at St. Tropez on Tuesday. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has won 4 of the last 10. Billy Harris is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kjaer is exactly that — a lean.

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Updated Sep 21, 2026, 3:31 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.