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Buenos Aires 3 Predictions & Picks — September 23, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · September 23, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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3 matches are on Wednesday's card at Buenos Aires 3, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Facundo Mena against Ivan Justo Guido in the round of 16. Our calls: Mena over Guido, Dellien over Kicker, Varillas over Velasco.

Juan Pablo Varillas vs Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 76% on Juan Pablo Varillas, who won 4-6 7-5 6-4.

Pick: Varillas

Win probability: 76% Varillas · Market: -367 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)

Juan Pablo Varillas and Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco meet in the round of 16 at Buenos Aires 3 on Wednesday. Juan Pablo Varillas brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco has won 3 of the last 10.

Varillas's 68.7% behind the first serve (against 64% for Velasco) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Varillas comes in off a compressed schedule; Velasco comes in off a compressed schedule. Velasco needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Hugo Dellien vs Nicolas Kicker

✗ Pick wrongA miss: Hugo Dellien at 74% lost to Nicolas Kicker (4-6 7-5 6-0).

Pick: Dellien

Win probability: 74% Dellien · Market: -323 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)

Wednesday's Buenos Aires 3 round of 16 pits Hugo Dellien against Nicolas Kicker on clay. Hugo Dellien is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Nicolas Kicker is 7-3 across recent matches.

Hugo Dellien is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Dellien around 74%. Dellien comes in off a compressed schedule; Kicker comes in off a compressed schedule. Kicker needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.

Facundo Mena vs Ivan Justo Guido

✓ Pick rightNailed it. We had Facundo Mena at 57% before the match, and Facundo Mena won 6-4 7-6.

Pick: Mena

Win probability: 57% Mena · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)

A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Facundo Mena goes up against Ivan Justo Guido in the Buenos Aires 3 round of 16. Facundo Mena has won 6 in a row and 9 of the last 10 overall. Ivan Justo Guido has won 5 of the last 10.

Hold strength tells the story — 71.6% versus 63% on first-serve points in Mena's favor. Mena comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Mena gets the nod on the finest of margins.

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Updated Sep 23, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.