2 matches are on Wednesday's card at Genova 2 (Italy), and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Kimmer Coppejans against Luka Mikrut in the round of 16. Our calls: Mikrut over Coppejans, Moeller over Arnaboldi.
Pick: Mikrut
Win probability: 68% Mikrut · Market: -182 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Wednesday's Genova 2 (Italy) round of 16 pits Kimmer Coppejans against Luka Mikrut on clay. Luka Mikrut is 8-2 across recent matches. Kimmer Coppejans has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Mikrut's 70.9% behind the first serve (against 64% for Coppejans) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Mikrut comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Mikrut — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Moeller
Win probability: 73% Moeller · Market: -219 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Wednesday's Genova 2 (Italy) round of 16 pits Federico Arnaboldi against Marvin Moeller on clay. Marvin Moeller is 5-5 across recent matches. Federico Arnaboldi limps in on a 8-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
Marvin Moeller is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Moeller around 73%. Moeller comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Moeller win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
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