5 matches are on Wednesday's card at St. Tropez, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Borna Gojo against Titouan Droguet in the round of 16. Our calls: Droguet over Gojo, Glinka over Blanchet, Tabur over Cassone, Lajal over Faurel, Prizmic over Sanchis.
Pick: Tabur
Win probability: 55% Tabur · Market: -102 · We call it in 3 sets (53%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Clement Tabur goes up against Murphy Cassone in the St. Tropez round of 32. Clement Tabur is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (3 of the last 10). Murphy Cassone has won 5 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tabur is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Prizmic
Win probability: 80% Prizmic · Market: -913 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
David Jorda Sanchis and Dino Prizmic meet in the round of 16 at St. Tropez on Wednesday. Dino Prizmic has won 5 of the last 10. David Jorda Sanchis is searching for form, having lost 5 in a row (5 of the last 10).
Dino Prizmic simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Sanchis comes in off a compressed schedule; Prizmic comes in off a compressed schedule. If Prizmic plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Glinka
Win probability: 50% Glinka · Market: -112 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Daniil Glinka goes up against Ugo Blanchet in the St. Tropez round of 16. Daniil Glinka has won 6 of the last 10. Ugo Blanchet comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Glinka comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Glinka is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Lajal
Win probability: 75% Lajal · Market: -387 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Mark Lajal goes up against Thomas Faurel in the St. Tropez round of 16. Mark Lajal is 8-2 across recent matches. Thomas Faurel has won 2 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Lajal has been winning 71.2% of first-serve points to Faurel's 63%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Faurel comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Lajal win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Droguet
Win probability: 55% Droguet · Market: -138 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
Borna Gojo and Titouan Droguet meet in the round of 16 at St. Tropez on Wednesday. Titouan Droguet comes in at 9 wins from the last ten. Borna Gojo comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Titouan Droguet simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Droguet is exactly that — a lean.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.