4 matches are on Thursday's card at Buenos Aires 3, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex Barrena against Juan Pablo Ficovich in the round of 16. Our calls: Barrena over Ficovich, Roncadelli over Dias, Coria over Ribeiro, Angelo over Aboian.
The boldest call on the card: Coria over Ribeiro — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Roncadelli
Win probability: 55% Roncadelli · Market: -101 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Thursday's Buenos Aires 3 round of 16 pits Franco Roncadelli against Pedro Boscardin Dias on clay. Franco Roncadelli has won 6 of the last 10. Pedro Boscardin Dias is 1-9 across recent matches.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Roncadelli comes in off a compressed schedule; Dias comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Roncadelli is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: CoriaUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Ribeiro the favorite; our numbers say Coria.
Win probability: 60% Coria · Market: +129 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Eduardo Ribeiro and Federico Coria meet in the round of 16 at Buenos Aires 3 on Thursday. Federico Coria has won 5 of the last 10. Eduardo Ribeiro is 3-7 across recent matches.
Federico Coria is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Coria around 60%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Coria.
Pick: Angelo
Win probability: 64% Angelo · Market: -194 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Juan Carlos Prado Angelo goes up against Valerio Aboian in the Buenos Aires 3 round of 16. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo is 6-4 across recent matches. Valerio Aboian has won 5 of the last 10.
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Angelo.
Pick: Barrena
Win probability: 58% Barrena · Market: -162 · We call it in 3 sets (50%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alex Barrena goes up against Juan Pablo Ficovich in the Buenos Aires 3 round of 16. Alex Barrena has won 7 of the last 10. Juan Pablo Ficovich is 1-9 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Barrena fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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