Tennis predictions, September 24, 2026: Shapovalov vs Griekspoor, Svrcina vs Hijikata

Thursday's Chengdu round of 32 pits Denis Shapovalov against Tallon Griekspoor on hard. Denis Shapovalov is 7-3 across recent matches. Tallon Griekspoor is 4-6 across recent matches.

Denis Shapovalov is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Shapovalov around 52%. Little separates them; Shapovalov gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Thursday's Hangzhou round of 32 pits Dalibor Svrcina against Rinky Hijikata on hard. Rinky Hijikata is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10). Dalibor Svrcina has won 3 of the last 10.

The serve is where this match separates: Hijikata has been winning 68.6% of first-serve points to Svrcina's 63.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Hijikata is exactly that — a lean.

Jelena Ostapenko and Taylah Preston meet in the round of 16 at Seoul on Thursday. Jelena Ostapenko is 6-4 across recent matches. Taylah Preston comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.

Ostapenko's 64.9% behind the first serve (against 59.4% for Preston) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Ostapenko fractionally more likely to land the big points.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Aleksandar Kovacevic goes up against Lloyd Harris in the Chengdu round of 32. Lloyd Harris is 5-5 across recent matches. Aleksandar Kovacevic is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).

Lloyd Harris simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Harris is exactly that — a lean.

Jaime Faria and Terence Atmane meet in the round of 32 at Hangzhou on Thursday. Terence Atmane has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Jaime Faria is 6-4 across recent matches.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Atmane fractionally more likely to land the big points.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when James Duckworth goes up against Lorenzo Sonego in the Chengdu round of 32. Lorenzo Sonego has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. James Duckworth limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Sonego gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Thursday's Hangzhou round of 32 pits Kamil Majchrzak against Mattia Bellucci on hard. Kamil Majchrzak comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Mattia Bellucci is 4-6 across recent matches.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Majchrzak fractionally more likely to land the big points.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Michael Zheng goes up against Y. Bu in the Hangzhou round of 32. Michael Zheng comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Y. Bu comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Zheng is exactly that — a lean.

Alexander Shevchenko and Hubert Hurkacz meet in the round of 32 at Chengdu on Thursday. Hubert Hurkacz is 7-3 across recent matches. Alexander Shevchenko is 4-6 across recent matches.

The serve is where this match separates: Hurkacz has been winning 75.9% of first-serve points to Shevchenko's 69.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Hurkacz — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Thursday's Singapore round of 16 pits Alexandra Eala against Tatiana Prozorova on hard. Alexandra Eala is 7-3 across recent matches. Tatiana Prozorova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Alexandra Eala simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Eala should have enough here, though Prozorova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Thursday's Hangzhou round of 32 pits Hugo Gaston against Sho Shimabukuro on hard. Hugo Gaston has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Sho Shimabukuro comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

Hugo Gaston is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Gaston around 53%. Little separates them; Gaston gets the nod on the finest of margins.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Adrian Mannarino goes up against Juncheng Shang in the Chengdu round of 32. Juncheng Shang has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Adrian Mannarino comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Shang is exactly that — a lean.

Thursday's Seoul round of 16 pits Alina Charaeva against Anna Bondar on hard. Anna Bondar is 5-5 across recent matches. Alina Charaeva comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bondar is exactly that — a lean.

Miomir Kecmanovic and Nikoloz Basilashvili meet in the round of 32 at Chengdu on Thursday. Miomir Kecmanovic comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Nikoloz Basilashvili is 5-5 across recent matches.

Miomir Kecmanovic is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Kecmanovic around 58%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kecmanovic is exactly that — a lean.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alex Bolt goes up against Fabian Marozsan in the Hangzhou round of 32. Fabian Marozsan has won 5 of the last 10. Alex Bolt has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

Fabian Marozsan is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Marozsan around 61%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Marozsan.

Thursday's Chengdu round of 32 pits Camilo Ugo Carabelli against Nuno Borges on hard. Nuno Borges comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Camilo Ugo Carabelli comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Borges has been winning 71.4% of first-serve points to Carabelli's 66.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Borges — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Thursday's Chengdu round of 32 pits Martin Damm against Shintaro Mochizuki on hard. Martin Damm is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (3 of the last 10). Shintaro Mochizuki has dropped 3 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Damm has been winning 77.3% of first-serve points to Mochizuki's 67.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Damm should have enough here, though Mochizuki has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.

Thursday's Chengdu round of 32 pits Juan Manuel Cerundolo against Yi Zhou on hard. Juan Manuel Cerundolo has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten. Yi Zhou comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Cerundolo around 64%. The edge belongs to Cerundolo — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Dane Sweeny goes up against Taro Daniel in the Hangzhou round of 32. Taro Daniel has won 7 of the last 10. Dane Sweeny has won 4 of the last 10.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Daniel fractionally more likely to land the big points.

Thursday's Hangzhou round of 32 pits Daniel Vallejo against Jie Cui on hard. Daniel Vallejo comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Jie Cui is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Vallejo.

Fajing Sun and Roman Safiullin meet in the round of 32 at Hangzhou on Thursday. Roman Safiullin has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Fajing Sun comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

Hold strength tells the story — 72.2% versus 69.1% on first-serve points in Safiullin's favor. The edge belongs to Safiullin — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.

Maria Sakkari and Nao Hibino meet in the round of 16 at Singapore on Thursday. Maria Sakkari has won 6 of the last 10. Nao Hibino has won 5 of the last 10.

Hold strength tells the story — 65% versus 61.4% on first-serve points in Sakkari's favor. If Sakkari plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.