2 matches are on Monday's card at Hangzhou, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Andrey Rublev against Kyrian Jacquet in the semifinal. Our calls: Rublev over Jacquet, Medvedev over Safiullin.
Pick: Rublev
Win probability: 62% Rublev · Market: -262 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Monday's Hangzhou semifinal pits Andrey Rublev against Kyrian Jacquet on hard. Andrey Rublev has won 6 of the last 10. Kyrian Jacquet comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.2% versus 69.9% on first-serve points in Rublev's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Rublev.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 68% Medvedev · Market: -206 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Monday's Hangzhou semifinal pits Daniil Medvedev against Roman Safiullin on hard. Daniil Medvedev is 5-5 across recent matches. Roman Safiullin comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Medvedev comes in off a compressed schedule; Safiullin comes in off a compressed schedule. Medvedev should have enough here, though Safiullin has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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