4 matches are on Monday's card at Chengdu and Hangzhou, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Denis Shapovalov against Hubert Hurkacz in the semifinal. Our calls: Hurkacz over Shapovalov, Rublev over Jacquet, Medvedev over Safiullin, Fokina over Basilashvili.
September 27, 2026 results: 11-3 → how our picks graded, match by match.
Pick: Hurkacz
Win probability: 56% Hurkacz · Market: -148 · We call it in 3 sets (42%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Denis Shapovalov and Hubert Hurkacz meet in the semifinal at Chengdu on Monday. Hubert Hurkacz is 8-2 across recent matches. Denis Shapovalov has won 7 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Shapovalov comes in off a compressed schedule; Hurkacz comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Hurkacz gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Rublev
Win probability: 62% Rublev · Market: -262 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Monday's Hangzhou semifinal pits Andrey Rublev against Kyrian Jacquet on hard. Andrey Rublev has won 6 of the last 10. Kyrian Jacquet comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.2% versus 69.9% on first-serve points in Rublev's favor. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Rublev.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 68% Medvedev · Market: -206 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Monday's Hangzhou semifinal pits Daniil Medvedev against Roman Safiullin on hard. Daniil Medvedev is 5-5 across recent matches. Roman Safiullin comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Medvedev comes in off a compressed schedule; Safiullin comes in off a compressed schedule. Medvedev should have enough here, though Safiullin has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Fokina
Win probability: 64% Fokina · Market: -207 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Alejandro Davidovich Fokina goes up against Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Chengdu semifinal. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won 8 of the last 10. Nikoloz Basilashvili has won 5 of the last 10.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fokina.
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