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Chengdu Predictions & Picks — September 29, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · September 29, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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One match is on Tuesday's card at Chengdu, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina against Hubert Hurkacz in the final. Our calls: Hurkacz over Fokina.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Hubert Hurkacz

✗ Pick wrongMissed it. We had Hubert Hurkacz at 53%, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won 6-4 7-6.

Pick: Hurkacz

Win probability: 53% Hurkacz · Market: -132 · We call it in 2 sets (58%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)

It all comes down to Tuesday at Chengdu, where Alejandro Davidovich Fokina faces Hubert Hurkacz for the trophy. Hubert Hurkacz is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won 8 of the last 10.

Hurkacz's 75.9% behind the first serve (against 67.1% for Fokina) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Fokina comes in off a compressed schedule; Hurkacz comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Hurkacz gets the nod on the finest of margins.

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Updated Sep 28, 2026, 6:31 PM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.