Hangzhou & Chengdu predictions, September 29, 2026: Fokina vs Hurkacz, Rublev vs Medvedev

It all comes down to Tuesday at Chengdu, where Alejandro Davidovich Fokina faces Hubert Hurkacz for the trophy. Hubert Hurkacz is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has won 8 of the last 10.

Hurkacz's 75.9% behind the first serve (against 67.1% for Fokina) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Fokina comes in off a compressed schedule; Hurkacz comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Hurkacz gets the nod on the finest of margins.

Tuesday brings the Hangzhou final: Andrey Rublev against Daniil Medvedev. Daniil Medvedev comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Andrey Rublev comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

Daniil Medvedev is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Medvedev around 61%. Medvedev comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Medvedev — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.