4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Tokyo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexander Blockx against Valentin Vacherot in the round of 32. Our calls: Blockx over Vacherot, Fils over Assche, Paul over Tabilo, Sakamoto over Arnaldi.
Pick: Paul
Win probability: 63% Paul · Market: -213 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Alejandro Tabilo goes up against Tommy Paul in the Tokyo round of 32. Tommy Paul comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Alejandro Tabilo is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10).
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Paul — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Blockx
Win probability: 55% Blockx · Market: -131 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (29%)
Alexander Blockx and Valentin Vacherot meet in the round of 32 at Tokyo on Wednesday. Alexander Blockx is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Valentin Vacherot has won 4 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Blockx fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Sakamoto
Win probability: 50% Sakamoto · Market: -129 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (26%)
Matteo Arnaldi and Rei Sakamoto meet in the round of 32 at Tokyo on Wednesday. Rei Sakamoto is 5-5 across recent matches. Matteo Arnaldi limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Sakamoto's 73.7% behind the first serve (against 70.1% for Arnaldi) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Little separates them; Sakamoto gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 70% Fils · Market: -520 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
Wednesday's Tokyo round of 32 pits Arthur Fils against Luca Van Assche on hard. Arthur Fils has won 8 of the last 10. Luca Van Assche comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Fils has been winning 74% of first-serve points to Assche's 66.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Fils should have enough here, though Assche has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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