4 matches are on Friday's card at Jingshan, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Andre Ilagan against Lloyd Harris in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Harris over Ilagan, Cina over Ymer, Bolt over Sweeny, Tomic over Shimizu.
The boldest call on the card: Bolt over Sweeny — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Cina
Win probability: 57% Cina · Market: -254 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (29%)
Elias Ymer and Federico Cina meet in the round of 16 at Jingshan on Friday. Federico Cina has won 3 of the last 10. Elias Ymer has won 4 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Cina comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Cina gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Tomic
Win probability: 64% Tomic · Market: -145 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Bernard Tomic and Yuta Shimizu meet in the round of 16 at Jingshan on Friday. Bernard Tomic comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Yuta Shimizu has won 5 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 71.3% versus 67.7% on first-serve points in Tomic's favor. Tomic should have enough here, though Shimizu has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Harris
Win probability: 71% Harris · Market: -395 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (42%)
Friday's Jingshan quarterfinal pits Andre Ilagan against Lloyd Harris on hard. Lloyd Harris has won 6 of the last 10. Andre Ilagan has won 5 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Harris has been winning 74.3% of first-serve points to Ilagan's 64.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Ilagan arrives with very little recovery time. The edge belongs to Harris — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: BoltUpset call
Upset call: the market makes Sweeny the favorite; our numbers say Bolt.
Win probability: 56% Bolt · Market: +130 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Alex Bolt and Dane Sweeny meet in the quarterfinal at Jingshan on Friday. Alex Bolt comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Dane Sweeny is 4-6 across recent matches.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.3% versus 66% on first-serve points in Bolt's favor. Bolt arrives with very little recovery time; Sweeny comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Bolt fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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