4 matches are on Friday's card at Porto, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Edas Butvilas against Jerome Kym in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Kym over Butvilas, Rocha over Holmgren, Torre over Grenier, Rincon over Sanchis.
Pick: Torre
Win probability: 52% Torre · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
Hugo Grenier and Inaki Montes-De La Torre meet in the quarterfinal at Porto on Friday. Inaki Montes-De La Torre has won 4 of the last 10. Hugo Grenier has won 4 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Grenier comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Torre is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Rocha
Win probability: 61% Rocha · Market: -194 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when August Holmgren goes up against Henrique Rocha in the Porto quarterfinal. Henrique Rocha has won 5 of the last 10. August Holmgren is 5-5 across recent matches.
Henrique Rocha simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Holmgren comes in off a compressed schedule; Rocha comes in off a compressed schedule. Rocha should have enough here, though Holmgren has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Kym
Win probability: 55% Kym · Market: -118 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Edas Butvilas goes up against Jerome Kym in the Porto quarterfinal. Jerome Kym is 7-3 across recent matches. Edas Butvilas has won 6 of the last 10.
Kym's 74.8% behind the first serve (against 69.4% for Butvilas) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Butvilas comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Kym gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Rincon
Win probability: 64% Rincon · Market: -229 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Friday's Porto quarterfinal pits Daniel Rincon against David Jorda Sanchis on hard. Daniel Rincon comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. David Jorda Sanchis has won 4 of the last 10.
Daniel Rincon is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Rincon around 64%. Rincon comes in off a compressed schedule; Sanchis comes in off a compressed schedule. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Rincon.
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