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Curitiba Predictions & Picks — October 3, 2026

By The Maiden Desk · October 3, 2026

Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.

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2 matches are on Saturday's card at Curitiba, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Ivan Justo Guido against Tomas Barrios Vera in the semifinal. Our calls: Vera over Guido, Heide over Dias.

Gustavo Heide vs Pedro Boscardin Dias

✓ Pick rightThis one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 76% on Gustavo Heide, who won 6-2 6-3.

Pick: Heide

Win probability: 76% Heide · Market: -343 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (48%)

Saturday's Curitiba semifinal pits Gustavo Heide against Pedro Boscardin Dias on clay. Gustavo Heide brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Pedro Boscardin Dias is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.

The serve is where this match separates: Heide has been winning 71.6% of first-serve points to Dias's 65.5%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Heide comes in off a compressed schedule; Dias comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Heide win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.

Ivan Justo Guido vs Tomas Barrios Vera

✗ Pick wrongWe got this one wrong. Our final number was 57% on Tomas Barrios Vera; Ivan Justo Guido won 4-6 6-4 6-3.

Pick: Vera

Win probability: 57% Vera · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)

Ivan Justo Guido and Tomas Barrios Vera meet in the semifinal at Curitiba on Saturday. Tomas Barrios Vera is rolling — 3 straight wins, 3 of 10 in recent play. Ivan Justo Guido has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Guido comes in off a compressed schedule; Vera comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Vera gets the nod on the finest of margins.

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Updated Oct 3, 2026, 5:31 AM UTC. Picks are frozen before first serve and graded on the track record page — this page is never edited after the fact.