4 matches are on Sunday's card at Tokyo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Arthur Fils against Valentin Vacherot in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Fils over Vacherot, Alcaraz over Shapovalov, Jacquet over Munar, Lehecka over Vallejo.
Pick: Fils
Win probability: 65% Fils · Market: -336 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Arthur Fils and Valentin Vacherot meet in the quarterfinal at Tokyo on Sunday. Arthur Fils comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Valentin Vacherot is 6-4 across recent matches.
Arthur Fils simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Fils.
Pick: Jacquet
Win probability: 52% Jacquet · Market: +139 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (26%)
Sunday's Tokyo quarterfinal pits Jaume Munar against Kyrian Jacquet on hard. Kyrian Jacquet comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Jaume Munar is 6-4 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Jacquet gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Alcaraz
Win probability: 81% Alcaraz · Market: -615 · We call it in 2 sets (69%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (59%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Carlos Alcaraz goes up against Denis Shapovalov in the Tokyo quarterfinal. Carlos Alcaraz comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Denis Shapovalov is 7-3 across recent matches.
Carlos Alcaraz simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Shapovalov needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Lehecka
Win probability: 74% Lehecka · Market: -241 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (48%)
Daniel Vallejo and Jiri Lehecka meet in the quarterfinal at Tokyo on Sunday. Jiri Lehecka brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Daniel Vallejo is 5-5 across recent matches.
Lehecka's 73.1% behind the first serve (against 65.2% for Vallejo) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Anything other than a Lehecka win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
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