4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Antofagasta, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Ivan Justo Guido against Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva in the round of 16. Our calls: Guido over Silva, Almeida over Olivieri, Alves over Hardt, Wild over Velasco.
Pick: Almeida
Win probability: 65% Almeida · Market: -222 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (33%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Genaro Alberto Olivieri goes up against Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida in the Antofagasta round of 16. Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is 4-6 across recent matches. Genaro Alberto Olivieri is 5-5 across recent matches.
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Almeida comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Almeida — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Wild
Win probability: 83% Wild · Market: -509 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco goes up against Thiago Seyboth Wild in the Antofagasta round of 16. Thiago Seyboth Wild brings a 8-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Murkel Alejandro Dellien Velasco comes in at 3 wins from the last ten.
Wild's 68.8% behind the first serve (against 64% for Velasco) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Wild comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Wild win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Pick: Guido
Win probability: 53% Guido · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
Wednesday's Antofagasta round of 16 pits Ivan Justo Guido against Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva on clay. Ivan Justo Guido brings a 6-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva has won 6 of the last 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Guido comes in off a compressed schedule; Silva comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Guido fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Alves
Win probability: 63% Alves · Market: -194 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Felipe Meligeni Alves goes up against Nick Hardt in the Antofagasta round of 16. Felipe Meligeni Alves has won 4 of the last 10. Nick Hardt is rolling — 3 straight wins, 5 of 10 in recent play.
The serve is where this match separates: Alves has been winning 69.7% of first-serve points to Hardt's 64%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Alves comes in off a compressed schedule. Alves should have enough here, though Hardt has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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