2 matches are on Thursday's card at Beijing, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Karolina Muchova against Nikola Bartunkova in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Muchova over Bartunkova, Andreeva over Alexandrova.
Pick: Muchova
Win probability: 68% Muchova · Market: -209 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Thursday's Beijing quarterfinal pits Karolina Muchova against Nikola Bartunkova on hard. Karolina Muchova has won 5 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Nikola Bartunkova is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Muchova should have enough here, though Bartunkova has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Andreeva
Win probability: 64% Andreeva · Market: -256 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Ekaterina Alexandrova goes up against Mirra Andreeva in the Beijing quarterfinal. Mirra Andreeva has won 3 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Ekaterina Alexandrova has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.
Mirra Andreeva is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Andreeva around 64%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Andreeva.
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