9 matches are on Monday's card at Wuhan, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Jasmine Paolini against Sara Bejlek in the round of 64. Our calls: Paolini over Bejlek, Alexandrova over Fernandez, Kalinskaya over Parry, Kartal over Kalinina, Sakkari over Vekic, Bouzkova over Tauson, and 3 more.
Pick: Kalinskaya
Win probability: 58% Kalinskaya · Market: -172 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Anna Kalinskaya goes up against Diane Parry in the Wuhan round of 64. Anna Kalinskaya has won 7 of the last 10. Diane Parry has dropped 3 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.
Anna Kalinskaya simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Kalinskaya is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Kartal
Win probability: 57% Kartal · Market: -156 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Monday's Wuhan round of 64 pits Anhelina Kalinina against Sonay Kartal on hard. Sonay Kartal is 6-4 across recent matches. Anhelina Kalinina has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Kartal gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Bouzkova
Win probability: 56% Bouzkova · Market: -200 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Clara Tauson and Marie Bouzkova meet in the round of 64 at Wuhan on Monday. Marie Bouzkova is 6-4 across recent matches. Clara Tauson has dropped 3 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten.
Marie Bouzkova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Bouzkova around 56%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Bouzkova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Sakkari
Win probability: 56% Sakkari · Market: -147 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Monday's Wuhan round of 64 pits Donna Vekic against Maria Sakkari on hard. Maria Sakkari has won 5 of the last 10. Donna Vekic has won 2 of the last 10.
Maria Sakkari is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Sakkari around 56%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Sakkari is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Tjen
Win probability: 55% Tjen · Market: -254 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Janice Tjen and Oleksandra Oliynykova meet in the round of 64 at Wuhan on Monday. Janice Tjen has won 4 of the last 10. Oleksandra Oliynykova has won 5 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 67.6% versus 57.4% on first-serve points in Tjen's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tjen is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Alexandrova
Win probability: 51% Alexandrova · Market: -115 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Ekaterina Alexandrova and Leylah Fernandez meet in the round of 64 at Wuhan on Monday. Ekaterina Alexandrova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Leylah Fernandez is 7-3 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Alexandrova fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Paolini
Win probability: 50% Paolini · Market: +113 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Jasmine Paolini goes up against Sara Bejlek in the Wuhan round of 64. Jasmine Paolini limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Sara Bejlek comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Paolini is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Mcnally
Win probability: 56% Mcnally · Market: -154 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Monday's Wuhan round of 64 pits Caty Mcnally against Yuliia Starodubtseva on hard. Caty Mcnally limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Yuliia Starodubtseva is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).
Caty Mcnally is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Mcnally around 56%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Mcnally is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Frech
Win probability: 53% Frech · Market: -129 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Monday's Wuhan round of 64 pits Magdalena Frech against Mananchaya Sawangkaew on hard. Magdalena Frech has won 5 of the last 10. Mananchaya Sawangkaew has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Frech gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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