4 matches are on Tuesday's card at Santa Cruz 2, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Facundo Mena against Pedro Boscardin Dias in the round of 32. Our calls: Mena over Dias, Juan over Casanova, Roncadelli over Aboian, Angelo over Ribeiro.
Pick: Mena
Win probability: 55% Mena · Market: +100 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Tuesday's Santa Cruz 2 round of 32 pits Facundo Mena against Pedro Boscardin Dias on clay. Facundo Mena is 9-1 across recent matches. Pedro Boscardin Dias has won 7 of the last 10.
Mena's 71.8% behind the first serve (against 65.4% for Dias) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Mena fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Roncadelli
Win probability: 56% Roncadelli · Market: -185 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Franco Roncadelli goes up against Valerio Aboian in the Santa Cruz 2 round of 32. Franco Roncadelli is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10). Valerio Aboian has dropped 2 straight and sits at 4-6 over the last ten.
Franco Roncadelli simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Roncadelli is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Juan
Win probability: 51% Juan · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Hernan Casanova goes up against Manuel La Serna Juan in the Santa Cruz 2 round of 32. Manuel La Serna Juan comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Hernan Casanova has dropped 4 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Juan is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Angelo
Win probability: 62% Angelo · Market: -268 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Eduardo Ribeiro goes up against Juan Carlos Prado Angelo in the Santa Cruz 2 round of 32. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo has won 6 of the last 10. Eduardo Ribeiro is 4-6 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Angelo — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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