7 matches are on Wednesday's card at Jinan, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: James Duckworth against Liam Draxl in the round of 32. Our calls: Duckworth over Draxl, Sharipov over Ivashka, Schoolkate over Pavlovic, Watanuki over Ilagan, Kopriva over Smith, Vukic over Matsuoka, and 1 more.
Pick: Landaluce
Win probability: 70% Landaluce · Market: -275 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Wednesday's Jinan round of 16 pits Jie Cui against Martin Landaluce on hard. Martin Landaluce comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Jie Cui is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10).
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Cui comes in off a compressed schedule; Landaluce comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Landaluce — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Kopriva
Win probability: 55% Kopriva · Market: -168 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Keegan Smith and Vit Kopriva meet in the round of 16 at Jinan on Wednesday. Vit Kopriva has dropped 2 straight and sits at 3-7 over the last ten. Keegan Smith comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Smith comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Kopriva fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Vukic
Win probability: 58% Vukic · Market: -130 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Wednesday's Jinan round of 32 pits Aleksandar Vukic against Hayato Matsuoka on hard. Aleksandar Vukic limps in on a 4-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Hayato Matsuoka limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Vukic has been winning 73.1% of first-serve points to Matsuoka's 69.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Vukic is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Duckworth
Win probability: 53% Duckworth · Market: -134 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (28%)
James Duckworth and Liam Draxl meet in the round of 32 at Jinan on Wednesday. James Duckworth has dropped 4 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Liam Draxl comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Duckworth has been winning 72.2% of first-serve points to Draxl's 68.3%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Duckworth gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Schoolkate
Win probability: 53% Schoolkate · Market: -156 · We call it in 3 sets (53%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (29%)
Luka Pavlovic and Tristan Schoolkate meet in the round of 32 at Jinan on Wednesday. Tristan Schoolkate has won 5 of the last 10. Luka Pavlovic comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Schoolkate is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Watanuki
Win probability: 51% Watanuki · Market: -119 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (26%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Andre Ilagan goes up against Yosuke Watanuki in the Jinan round of 32. Yosuke Watanuki has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Andre Ilagan has won 6 of the last 10.
Yosuke Watanuki leads the head-to-head 1-0, and history has a way of mattering in matchups like this one. On hard specifically it reads 1-0 Watanuki — worth more than the overall number this week.
Watanuki's 76.5% behind the first serve (against 64.1% for Ilagan) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Watanuki is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Sharipov
Win probability: 56% Sharipov · Market: -115 · We call it in 3 sets (45%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Wednesday's Jinan round of 32 pits Ilya Ivashka against Marat Sharipov on hard. Marat Sharipov is 8-2 across recent matches. Ilya Ivashka brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 76.8% versus 69.6% on first-serve points in Sharipov's favor. Little separates them; Sharipov gets the nod on the finest of margins.
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