3 matches are on Wednesday's card at Santa Cruz 2, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Felipe Meligeni Alves against Francisco Comesana in the round of 16. Our calls: Comesana over Alves, Dellien over Mendez, Barrena over Olivieri.
Pick: Dellien
Win probability: 62% Dellien · Market: -159 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Wednesday's Santa Cruz 2 round of 16 pits Hugo Dellien against Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez on clay. Hugo Dellien is 8-2 across recent matches. Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Dellien should have enough here, though Mendez has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Barrena
Win probability: 61% Barrena · Market: -179 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Alex Barrena goes up against Genaro Alberto Olivieri in the Santa Cruz 2 round of 16. Alex Barrena comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Genaro Alberto Olivieri comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Alex Barrena is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Barrena around 61%. Olivieri comes in off a compressed schedule. Barrena should have enough here, though Olivieri has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Comesana
Win probability: 57% Comesana · Market: -181 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Felipe Meligeni Alves goes up against Francisco Comesana in the Santa Cruz 2 round of 16. Francisco Comesana comes in at 4 wins from the last ten. Felipe Meligeni Alves comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Comesana fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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