6 matches are on Thursday's card at Wuhan, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Diana Shnaider against Karolina Muchova in the round of 16. Our calls: Muchova over Shnaider, Paolini over Kartal, Fernandez over Ostapenko, Li over Tjen, Jovic over Chwalinska, Swiatek over Krueger.
Pick: Jovic
Win probability: 68% Jovic · Market: -255 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (44%)
Iva Jovic and Maja Chwalinska meet in the round of 16 at Wuhan on Thursday. Iva Jovic comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Maja Chwalinska comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Jovic has been winning 62.4% of first-serve points to Chwalinska's 58.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Jovic.
Pick: Muchova
Win probability: 64% Muchova · Market: +100 · We call it in 2 sets (66%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (43%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Diana Shnaider goes up against Karolina Muchova in the Wuhan round of 16. Karolina Muchova is 7-3 across recent matches. Diana Shnaider comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Karolina Muchova is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Muchova around 64%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Muchova.
Pick: Paolini
Win probability: 52% Paolini · Market: -118 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Jasmine Paolini and Sonay Kartal meet in the round of 16 at Wuhan on Thursday. Jasmine Paolini is 6-4 across recent matches. Sonay Kartal is 6-4 across recent matches.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Paolini is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 81% Swiatek · Market: -712 · We call it in 2 sets (71%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (60%)
Thursday's Wuhan round of 16 pits Ashlyn Krueger against Iga Swiatek on hard. Iga Swiatek is 7-3 across recent matches. Ashlyn Krueger is 5-5 across recent matches.
Iga Swiatek simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. If Swiatek plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Li
Win probability: 59% Li · Market: -176 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Thursday's Wuhan round of 16 pits Ann Li against Janice Tjen on hard. Ann Li has won 6 of the last 10. Janice Tjen is 5-5 across recent matches.
Ann Li simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Li fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Fernandez
Win probability: 58% Fernandez · Market: -121 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (38%)
Jelena Ostapenko and Leylah Fernandez meet in the round of 16 at Wuhan on Thursday. Leylah Fernandez comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Jelena Ostapenko is 5-5 across recent matches.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Fernandez fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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