2 matches are on Saturday's card at Shanghai, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Daniil Medvedev against Rafael Jodar in the semifinal. Our calls: Medvedev over Jodar, Zverev over Fokina.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 68% Zverev · Market: -309 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Alexander Zverev meet in the semifinal at Shanghai on Saturday. Alexander Zverev has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
Zverev's 73.7% behind the first serve (against 67.3% for Fokina) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Zverev should have enough here, though Fokina has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 56% Medvedev · Market: -178 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Jodar meet in the semifinal at Shanghai on Saturday. Daniil Medvedev has won 10 in a row and 10 of the last 10 overall. Rafael Jodar is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
The serve is where this match separates: Medvedev has been winning 72.8% of first-serve points to Jodar's 69.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Medvedev gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Sign up for the daily desk email and our nine-chapter beginner's guide to trading sports prediction markets comes free as a PDF. One email a day with the day's free picks in full, unsubscribe anytime.