4 matches are on Saturday's card at Shanghai and Wuhan, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Daniil Medvedev against Rafael Jodar in the semifinal. Our calls: Medvedev over Jodar, Zverev over Fokina, Swiatek over Chwalinska.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 56% Medvedev · Market: -174 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Jodar meet in the semifinal at Shanghai on Saturday. Daniil Medvedev has won 10 in a row and 10 of the last 10 overall. Rafael Jodar is rolling — 3 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
The serve is where this match separates: Medvedev has been winning 72.8% of first-serve points to Jodar's 69.4%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Little separates them; Medvedev gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 68% Zverev · Market: -286 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Alexander Zverev meet in the semifinal at Shanghai on Saturday. Alexander Zverev has won 4 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
Zverev's 73.7% behind the first serve (against 67.3% for Fokina) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Zverev should have enough here, though Fokina has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
This pick is Pro until the match is played, then it goes public, graded, like every pick we publish. Pro opens the rest of the model’s picks.
Jelena Ostapenko and Sonay Kartal meet in the semifinal at Wuhan on Saturday. Sonay Kartal is rolling — 3 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play. Jelena Ostapenko has won 3 in a row and 5 of the last 10 overall.
Pick: Swiatek
Win probability: 77% Swiatek · Market: -476 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (54%)
Saturday's Wuhan semifinal pits Iga Swiatek against Maja Chwalinska on hard. Iga Swiatek comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Maja Chwalinska is rolling — 3 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Swiatek's 63.8% behind the first serve (against 58.2% for Chwalinska) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Chwalinska needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
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