4 matches are on Monday's card at Lisbon, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elmer Moller against Tristan Boyer in the round of 32. Our calls: Moller over Boyer, Monteiro over Canas, Cecchinato over Gaubas, Gurri over Andrade.
Pick: Monteiro
Win probability: 52% Monteiro · Market: -111 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
Alejandro Moro Canas and Thiago Monteiro meet in the round of 32 at Lisbon on Monday. Thiago Monteiro limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Alejandro Moro Canas is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10).
Hold strength tells the story — 72% versus 65.5% on first-serve points in Monteiro's favor. Little separates them; Monteiro gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Gurri
Win probability: 56% Gurri · Market: -244 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (30%)
Monday's Lisbon round of 32 pits Andres Andrade against Max Alcala Gurri on clay. Max Alcala Gurri is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Andres Andrade brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 5-5 across the last ten.
Max Alcala Gurri is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Gurri around 56%. Little separates them; Gurri gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Moller
Win probability: 53% Moller · Market: -107 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Elmer Moller goes up against Tristan Boyer in the Lisbon round of 32. Elmer Moller is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10). Tristan Boyer is 4-6 across recent matches.
Elmer Moller simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Moller gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Cecchinato
Win probability: 50% Cecchinato · Market: +160 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (25%)
Marco Cecchinato and Vilius Gaubas meet in the round of 32 at Lisbon on Monday. Marco Cecchinato limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10. Vilius Gaubas has won 4 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cecchinato is exactly that — a lean.
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