4 matches are on Monday's card at Ningbo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elise Mertens against Leylah Fernandez in the round of 32. Our calls: Mertens over Fernandez, Eala over Parry, Bouzkova over Rakhimova, Sasnovich over Kasatkina.
Pick: Eala
Win probability: 57% Eala · Market: -255 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Monday's Ningbo round of 32 pits Alexandra Eala against Diane Parry on hard. Alexandra Eala has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Diane Parry has dropped 4 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Eala is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Mertens
Win probability: 53% Mertens · Market: -122 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Elise Mertens and Leylah Fernandez meet in the round of 32 at Ningbo on Monday. Elise Mertens is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Leylah Fernandez has won 7 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Mertens gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Bouzkova
Win probability: 61% Bouzkova · Market: -229 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
Monday's Ningbo round of 32 pits Kamilla Rakhimova against Marie Bouzkova on hard. Marie Bouzkova is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (6 of the last 10). Kamilla Rakhimova comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Marie Bouzkova simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Bouzkova — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Sasnovich
Win probability: 54% Sasnovich · Market: -122 · We call it in 3 sets (43%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (33%)
Monday's Ningbo round of 32 pits Aliaksandra Sasnovich against Daria Kasatkina on hard. Aliaksandra Sasnovich has won 5 of the last 10. Daria Kasatkina limps in on a 6-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Sasnovich fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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