4 matches are on Wednesday's card at Lisbon, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Elmer Moller against Max Alcala Gurri in the round of 16. Our calls: Moller over Gurri, Rocha over Monteiro, Trungelliti over Carlo, Dodig over Cecchinato.
Pick: Moller
Win probability: 52% Moller · Market: +101 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Elmer Moller goes up against Max Alcala Gurri in the Lisbon round of 16. Elmer Moller has won 6 of the last 10. Max Alcala Gurri comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Moller is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Rocha
Win probability: 56% Rocha · Market: -173 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Henrique Rocha goes up against Thiago Monteiro in the Lisbon round of 16. Henrique Rocha is 7-3 across recent matches. Thiago Monteiro comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Rocha fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Dodig
Win probability: 68% Dodig · Market: -230 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Wednesday's Lisbon round of 16 pits Marco Cecchinato against Matej Dodig on clay. Matej Dodig comes in at 9 wins from the last ten. Marco Cecchinato has won 5 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 70.4% versus 67.1% on first-serve points in Dodig's favor. The edge belongs to Dodig — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
Pick: Trungelliti
Win probability: 59% Trungelliti · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Wednesday's Lisbon round of 16 pits Alberto Caniato Carlo against Marco Trungelliti on clay. Marco Trungelliti has won 6 of the last 10. Alberto Caniato Carlo is rolling — 6 straight wins, 6 of 10 in recent play.
Marco Trungelliti simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Trungelliti fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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