3 matches are on Friday's card at Cali, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Manuel La Serna Juan against Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Almeida over Juan, Aboian over Tobon, Heide over Taverna.
The boldest call on the card: Aboian over Tobon — the market disagrees with us there.
Pick: Almeida
Win probability: 59% Almeida · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Manuel La Serna Juan goes up against Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida in the Cali quarterfinal. Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is 6-4 across recent matches. Manuel La Serna Juan has won 6 of the last 10.
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Almeida around 59%. Almeida comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Almeida is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: AboianUpset call
Upset call: the market favors Tobon; our numbers say Aboian.
Win probability: 51% Aboian · Market: +162 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (27%)
M. Tobon and Valerio Aboian meet in the quarterfinal at Cali on Friday. Valerio Aboian has won 5 of the last 10. M. Tobon has won 4 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Tobon arrives with very little recovery time; Aboian comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Aboian is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Heide
Win probability: 77% Heide · Market: -567 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (46%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Gustavo Heide goes up against Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna in the Cali quarterfinal. Gustavo Heide has won 8 of the last 10. Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna has won 6 of the last 10.
Heide's 71.6% behind the first serve (against 67.6% for Taverna) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. Taverna comes in off a compressed schedule. Anything other than a Heide win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
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