4 matches are on Friday's card at Ningbo, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Diana Shnaider against Iva Jovic in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Shnaider over Jovic, Alexandrova over Fernandez, Bejlek over Bouzkova, Rybakina over Kawa.
Pick: Bejlek
Win probability: 50% Bejlek · Market: +146 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
Friday's Ningbo quarterfinal pits Marie Bouzkova against Sara Bejlek on hard. Sara Bejlek has won 5 of the last 10. Marie Bouzkova has won 7 of the last 10.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Bejlek is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Alexandrova
Win probability: 50% Alexandrova · Market: -126 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (31%)
Ekaterina Alexandrova and Leylah Fernandez meet in the quarterfinal at Ningbo on Friday. Ekaterina Alexandrova has won 6 of the last 10. Leylah Fernandez comes in at 8 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Little separates them; Alexandrova gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Rybakina
Win probability: 93% Rybakina · Market: -918 · We call it in 2 sets (72%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (69%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Elena Rybakina goes up against Katarzyna Kawa in the Ningbo quarterfinal. Elena Rybakina comes in at 9 wins from the last ten. Katarzyna Kawa has won 3 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Rybakina has been winning 70% of first-serve points to Kawa's 57.8%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Kawa needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Shnaider
Win probability: 53% Shnaider · Market: +116 · We call it in 2 sets (63%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Friday's Ningbo quarterfinal pits Diana Shnaider against Iva Jovic on hard. Diana Shnaider has won 7 of the last 10. Iva Jovic is 7-3 across recent matches.
On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Shnaider fractionally more likely to land the big points.
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