One match is on Saturday's card at Lisbon, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alexander Ritschard against Marco Trungelliti in the semifinal. Our calls: Trungelliti over Ritschard.
Pick: Trungelliti
Win probability: 52% Trungelliti · Market: -116 · We call it in 3 sets (51%) · single likeliest score 2-1 (27%)
Saturday's Lisbon semifinal pits Alexander Ritschard against Marco Trungelliti on clay. Marco Trungelliti is 7-3 across recent matches. Alexander Ritschard has won 6 of the last 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Ritschard comes in off a compressed schedule; Trungelliti comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Trungelliti is exactly that — a lean.
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