One match is on Sunday's card at Almaty, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Daniil Medvedev against Nikoloz Basilashvili in the final. Our calls: Medvedev over Basilashvili.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 75% Medvedev · Market: -341 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (53%)
Sunday brings the Almaty final: Daniil Medvedev against Nikoloz Basilashvili. Daniil Medvedev has won 9 of the last 10. Nikoloz Basilashvili has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.
The serve is where this match separates: Medvedev has been winning 72.8% of first-serve points to Basilashvili's 68.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Basilashvili comes in off a compressed schedule. If Medvedev plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
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