6 matches are on Monday's card at Vienna, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Alex De Minaur against Tomas Machac in the round of 32. Our calls: Minaur over Machac, Fery over Fearnley, Tien over Assche, Berrettini over Etcheverry, Darderi over Arnaldi, Mensik over Neumayer.
Pick: Tien
Win probability: 65% Tien · Market: -209 · We call it in 3 sets (46%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Learner Tien and Luca Van Assche meet in the round of 32 at Vienna on Monday. Learner Tien comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Luca Van Assche limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Learner Tien is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Tien around 65%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Tien.
Pick: Berrettini
Win probability: 64% Berrettini · Market: -159 · We call it in 2 sets (62%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (41%)
Matteo Berrettini and Tomas Martin Etcheverry meet in the round of 32 at Vienna on Monday. Matteo Berrettini has won 4 of the last 10. Tomas Martin Etcheverry is searching for form, having lost 5 in a row (3 of the last 10).
Hold strength tells the story — 76.2% versus 71.2% on first-serve points in Berrettini's favor. Berrettini should have enough here, though Etcheverry has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Darderi
Win probability: 54% Darderi · Market: +118 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (32%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Monday, when Luciano Darderi goes up against Matteo Arnaldi in the Vienna round of 32. Luciano Darderi has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Matteo Arnaldi has won 4 of the last 10.
Luciano Darderi simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Darderi gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Mensik
Win probability: 80% Mensik · Market: -458 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
Monday's Vienna round of 32 pits Jakub Mensik against Lukas Neumayer on hard. Jakub Mensik has won 5 of the last 10. Lukas Neumayer has won 6 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Mensik has been winning 76.6% of first-serve points to Neumayer's 64.1%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. If Mensik plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 73% Minaur · Market: -205 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (49%)
Alex De Minaur and Tomas Machac meet in the round of 32 at Vienna on Monday. Alex De Minaur comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Tomas Machac comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Machac needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Fery
Win probability: 50% Fery · Market: +111 · We call it in 3 sets (48%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (25%)
Monday's Vienna round of 32 pits Arthur Fery against Jacob Fearnley on hard. Arthur Fery has won 5 of the last 10. Jacob Fearnley is 7-3 across recent matches.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Fery is exactly that — a lean.
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