6 matches are on Tuesday's card at Vienna, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Carlos Alcaraz against Karen Khachanov in the round of 32. Our calls: Alcaraz over Khachanov, Paul over Rublev, Cobolli over Dimitrov, Cerundolo over Norrie, Mannarino over Buse, Zverev over Landaluce.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 86% Zverev · Market: -708 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (57%)
Tuesday's Vienna round of 32 pits Alexander Zverev against Martin Landaluce on hard. Alexander Zverev has won 7 of the last 10. Martin Landaluce comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.
Hold strength tells the story — 73.7% versus 70.4% on first-serve points in Zverev's favor. Landaluce needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Alcaraz
Win probability: 77% Alcaraz · Market: -367 · We call it in 2 sets (67%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (55%)
Carlos Alcaraz and Karen Khachanov meet in the round of 32 at Vienna on Tuesday. Carlos Alcaraz has won 8 of the last 10. Karen Khachanov has won 6 of the last 10.
Carlos Alcaraz is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Alcaraz around 77%. If Alcaraz plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Paul
Win probability: 59% Paul · Market: -122 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (37%)
Tuesday's Vienna round of 32 pits Andrey Rublev against Tommy Paul on hard. Tommy Paul has won 6 of the last 10. Andrey Rublev has dropped 3 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Paul is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Cerundolo
Win probability: 58% Cerundolo · Market: -185 · We call it in 2 sets (59%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Cameron Norrie goes up against Francisco Cerundolo in the Vienna round of 32. Francisco Cerundolo is 6-4 across recent matches. Cameron Norrie is searching for form, having lost 4 in a row (4 of the last 10).
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Cerundolo fractionally more likely to land the big points.
Pick: Cobolli
Win probability: 54% Cobolli · Market: -189 · We call it in 2 sets (61%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (34%)
Flavio Cobolli and Grigor Dimitrov meet in the round of 32 at Vienna on Tuesday. Flavio Cobolli has dropped 4 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten. Grigor Dimitrov limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Cobolli is exactly that — a lean.
Pick: Mannarino
Win probability: 52% Mannarino · Market: -156 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (26%)
A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Adrian Mannarino goes up against Ignacio Buse in the Vienna round of 32. Adrian Mannarino is 6-4 across recent matches. Ignacio Buse has dropped 3 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten.
Adrian Mannarino is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Mannarino around 52%. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Mannarino is exactly that — a lean.
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