5 matches are on Thursday's card at Guayaquil, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Daniel Elahi Galan against Lautaro Midon in the round of 16. Our calls: Midon over Galan, Dellien over Mendez, Dedura over Aboian, Angelo over Hardt, Carabelli over Hernandez.
Pick: Angelo
Win probability: 66% Angelo · Market: -250 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo and Nick Hardt meet in the round of 16 at Guayaquil on Thursday. Juan Carlos Prado Angelo comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Nick Hardt has won 4 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Angelo.
Pick: Midon
Win probability: 57% Midon · Market: -150 · We call it in 3 sets (49%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (29%)
Thursday's Guayaquil round of 16 pits Daniel Elahi Galan against Lautaro Midon on clay. Lautaro Midon comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Daniel Elahi Galan is 5-5 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Galan comes in off a compressed schedule. Little separates them; Midon gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Pick: Carabelli
Win probability: 82% Carabelli · Market: -722 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (51%)
Alex Hernandez and Camilo Ugo Carabelli meet in the round of 16 at Guayaquil on Thursday. Camilo Ugo Carabelli has won 3 of the last 10. Alex Hernandez has won 2 of the last 10.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli is clearly higher-rated on clay — our number puts Carabelli around 82%. Hernandez comes in off a compressed schedule. If Carabelli plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Dellien
Win probability: 64% Dellien · Market: -180 · We call it in 3 sets (47%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (35%)
Hugo Dellien and Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez meet in the round of 16 at Guayaquil on Thursday. Hugo Dellien has won 8 of the last 10. Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez has won 4 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Dellien should have enough here, though Mendez has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
Pick: Dedura
Win probability: 63% Dedura · Market: -277 · We call it in 3 sets (44%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (36%)
Diego Dedura and Valerio Aboian meet in the round of 16 at Guayaquil on Thursday. Diego Dedura is 4-6 across recent matches. Valerio Aboian comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. Dedura should have enough here, though Aboian has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
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