4 matches are on Friday's card at Vienna, and we have a pick for every one of them. The headline act: Carlos Alcaraz against Tommy Paul in the quarterfinal. Our calls: Alcaraz over Paul, Minaur over Berrettini, Medvedev over Mannarino, Zverev over Fery.
Pick: Zverev
Win probability: 83% Zverev · Market: -562 · We call it in 2 sets (64%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (55%)
Friday's Vienna quarterfinal pits Alexander Zverev against Arthur Fery on hard. Alexander Zverev has won 8 of the last 10. Arthur Fery has won 5 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Zverev's 73.7% behind the first serve (against 68.8% for Fery) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Zverev plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Medvedev
Win probability: 77% Medvedev · Market: -351 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (54%)
Friday's Vienna quarterfinal pits Adrian Mannarino against Daniil Medvedev on hard. Daniil Medvedev brings a 4-match winning streak into this one, 9-1 across the last ten. Adrian Mannarino is 7-3 across recent matches.
Daniil Medvedev simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. If Medvedev plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
Pick: Alcaraz
Win probability: 74% Alcaraz · Market: -302 · We call it in 2 sets (65%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (51%)
Friday's Vienna quarterfinal pits Carlos Alcaraz against Tommy Paul on hard. Carlos Alcaraz has won 8 of the last 10. Tommy Paul is 7-3 across recent matches.
Carlos Alcaraz simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Paul needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.
Pick: Minaur
Win probability: 62% Minaur · Market: -200 · We call it in 2 sets (60%) · single likeliest score 2-0 (40%)
Friday's Vienna quarterfinal pits Alex De Minaur against Matteo Berrettini on hard. Alex De Minaur has won 9 of the last 10. Matteo Berrettini is 5-5 across recent matches.
Alex De Minaur simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Minaur — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
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